Newbury 13:02: Value Analysis

Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)

Saturday 19 September 2026

Group 3 GD 5.0f Class 1 11 runners

Our highest-rated REDORANGE Our price 10/3 · Available 10/3 We make it 23% · the market says 23%

★ Best value NAANAS SPARKLE Our price 11/2 · Available 12/1 We make it 15% · the market says 8% · +97%

Why the model rates REDORANGE top (23% chance)

Preferred to Naanas Sparkle on 8lb better terms, well treated on ratings and a class winner before. Callum Rodriguez is at 19% in the fortnight; he ran 29 days ago with little to like and the trip is a query.

✓ Preferred to Naanas Sparkle, 8lb better in at the weights
✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✕ Little to like about its run last time
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	REDORANGE ★ Top Rated J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Clive Cox Form: 81410 · D 4.3 ·market 23%	23%	23%	4.3	+1%
2	NAANAS SPARKLE J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Lemos De Souza Form: 41201 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	15%	8%	13.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+97%
3	DICKENSIAN J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan Form: 10703 · D 11.0 ·market 9%	14%	9%	11.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+51%
4	STARLUST J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 60424 · CD 3.2 ·market 31%	9%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-70%
5	AZURE ANGEL J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell Form: 50500 · D 34.0 ·market 3%	8%	3%	34.0	+180%
6	MISS YECHANCE J: Jack Nicholls · T: K. R. Burke Form: 14731 · D 15.0 ·market 7%	7%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+8%
7	DILIGENT HARRY J: Ryan Moore · T: Clive Cox Form: 11448 · D 15.0 ·market 7%	6%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-7%
8	ASPECT ISLAND J: Luke Morris · T: James Owen Form: 30028 21.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%
9	FIRST INSTINCT J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas Form: 19025 · CD 7.5 ·market 13%	5%	13%	7.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-62%
10	SHAGRAAN J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Clive Cox Form: 13007 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	4%	8%	13.0	-44%
11	HALLO SPACEBOY J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker Form: 21221 · D 26.0 ·market 4%	4%	4%	26.0	+1%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org