Navan 13:07: Value Analysis

BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle

Saturday 19 September 2026

Maiden GD 16.0f Class 0 18 runners

Our highest-rated STATE PENSION Our price 5/1 · Available 9/2 We make it 16% · the market says 18%

No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates STATE PENSION top (16% chance)

Solid claims against this class of rival, and he ticks enough boxes here; the queries are 166 days off the track and a run last time that offered little to like.

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Little to like about its run last time
✕ First run for 166 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	STATE PENSION ★ Top Rated J: Cian Quirke · T: David Harry Kelly Form: 2135 · D 5.5 ·market 18%	16%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-11%
2	EALU TAPA J: Sam Ewing · T: Peter Fahey Form: 915 · D 15.0 ·market 7%	12%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+77%
3	DALLAS STAR J: Donagh Meyler · T: Emmet Mullins Form: 54756 3.2 ·market 31%	11%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-64%
4	IVATT J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott Form: 64863 6.0 ·market 17%	10%	17%	6.0	-42%
5	MINELLA POST J: James Smith(5) · T: Thomas Gibney Form: 0FP2 5.5 ·market 18%	8%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-55%
6	EN OR J: Daniel King · T: A. J. Martin Form: 03092 · D 5.0 ·market 20%	7%	20%	5.0	-65%
7	CARRIG PADRAIG J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: 6510F · D 13.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-19%
8	FOX WALK J: Simon Torrens · T: Noel C. Kelly Form: 35 51.0 ·market 2%	6%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+190%
9	PENNY EXPRESS J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott Form: P4543 21.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+10%
10	UNDERTHEINFLUENCE J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Noel C. Kelly Form: 896 41.0 ·market 2%	4%	2%	41.0	+64%
11	OREILLY J: Ethan O'Sullivan(7) · T: Peter Fahey Form: 33206 29.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+7%
12	CRYSTAL MARINER J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon Form: 85422 15.0 ·market 7%	3%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-52%
13	HAZEM J: Sean Flanagan · T: A. McCann Form: 40 67.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+42%
14	OUR SARA J: Conor Smithers(7) · T: James Andrew Fahey Form: 7498 81.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	81.0	+46%
15	DOWN AFTER DARK J: Phillip Enright · T: S Curling Form: U9 126.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	126.0	+110%
16	KINGSTON SILVER J: Danny Mullins · T: W J Lanigan Form: 09 126.0 ·market 1%	1%	1%	126.0	+83%
17	GRANNY FOR SPORT J: Shane O'Callaghan(3) · T: Ross O'Sullivan Form: 6 151.0 ·market 1%	1%	1%	151.0	+93%
18	PLUS OR MINUS J: Richard Condon(5) · T: P A Fahy Form: 78590 201.0 ·market 0%	1%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+122%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org