Newmarket 13:15: Value Analysis
Turners British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
Saturday 19 September 2026
Has run well in better company than this and returns after 21 days, with Billy Loughnane and Charlie Appleby a 35% combination and the rider at 21% in the last two months; consistency is the only real quibble.
- ✓ Billy Loughnane and Charlie Appleby win 35% together
- ✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 21% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 21 days since its last run
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FLOWER SHOW
★ Top Rated
1.4
·market 71%
|
55% |
71% |
1.4
|
-23% | |
| 2 |
LILY PINK
11.0
·market 9%
|
14% |
9% |
11.0
|
+54% | |
| 3 |
GIVE ME A BOW
251.0
·market 0%
|
8% |
0% |
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+1785%market disagrees | |
| 4 |
CATONAHOTTINROOF
17.0
·market 6%
|
7% |
6% |
17.0
|
+23% | |
| 5 |
GAINFUL
15.0
·market 7%
|
7% |
7% |
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-1% | |
| 6 |
ZHURI
5.0
·market 20%
|
6% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-70% | |
| 7 |
MISS YOU NIGHTS
81.0
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+310%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org