Hamilton 14:00: Value Analysis

Wee Brian Reilly Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Sunday 20 September 2026

Maiden SFT 8.5f Class 4 8 runners
Our highest-rated CELTIC STORM Our price 2/1 · Available 4/5 We make it 32% · the market says 56%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates CELTIC STORM top (32% chance)

Billy Loughnane is riding well at 21% in the last two months and this one ticks most boxes against this class, fresh 16 days after a run that offered little; the yard is quiet at 6% in the fortnight.

  • ✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 21% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 16 days since its last run
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Richard Hughes's yard quiet lately, 6% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CELTIC STORM ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Richard Hughes
Form: 53
1.8 ·market 56%
32%
56%
1.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
2
PEN LAN ICON
J: William Pyle · T: David Loughnane
Form: 73
8.0 ·market 12%
12%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -8%
3
BOWDENS
J: Rowan Scott · T: Charlie Johnston
9.0 ·market 11%
8%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24%
4
CHARMED BOY
J: Tom Marquand · T: Hugo Palmer
7.0 ·market 14%
8%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46%
5
UNICORN MILKSHAKE
J: Harry Russell · T: Brian Ellison
Form: 6
6.5 ·market 15%
8%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51%
6
GLEN IN ROME
J: Kevin Stott · T: Philip Kirby
51.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +282%
,
LIONS DEN NR
J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods
23.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
23.0
 +49% Withdrawn
7
FRONTIER LEGEND
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods
Form: 0
26.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +51%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org