Plumpton 14:08: Value Analysis

Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

Sunday 20 September 2026

Handicap Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 5 3 runners
Our highest-rated SIORAI Our price 8/11 · Available 8/11 We make it 57% · the market says 60%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates SIORAI top (57% chance)

Paul O'Brien and Harry Derham score at 25% together, she is well treated and holds a strong record against this class. Twice placed in her last five, though 109 days off and the trip pose questions.

  • ✓ Paul O'Brien and Harry Derham win 25% together
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SIORAI ★ Top Rated
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham
Form: 52264
1.7 ·market 60%
57%
60%
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
 -4%
2
GETAROSE
J: Adam Wedge · T: Mrs C. Williams
Form: 68443
3.6 ·market 28%
22%
28%
3.6
 -19%
3
GALEFORCECHOPPER
J: Liam Harrison · T: David Brace
Form: 39691 · D
4.3 ·market 23%
17%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org