Listowel 14:18: Value Analysis

Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle

Sunday 20 September 2026

Other Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 0 11 runners
Our highest-rated MINELLA BUOY Our price 11/4 · Available 6/5 We make it 26% · the market says 45%
★ Best value HELLO GARDA Our price 9/2 · Available 8/1 We make it 19% · the market says 11% · +68%
Why the model rates MINELLA BUOY top (26% chance)

Preferred to Sonny Corleone on both trip and ground, a 2m winner with the yard firing at 18% in the last two months and a good effort three runs back; consistency and the class rise are the doubts.

  • ✓ Preferred to Sonny Corleone, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ John J Nallen's yard in form, 18% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MINELLA BUOY ★ Top Rated
J: Daniel King · T: John J Nallen
Form: 62220
2.2 ·market 45%
26%
45%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -42%
2
SONNY CORLEONE
J: Sam Ewing · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 04479
5.0 ·market 20%
22%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +11%
3
HELLO GARDA
J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
Form: 2351U · D
9.0 ·market 11%
19%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +68%
4
CHAIRMANFORLIFE
J: Ricky Doyle · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 640P
19.0 ·market 5%
11%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +101%
5
DUNMORE
J: Danny Mullins · T: Anthony Mullins
Form: 8
19.0 ·market 5%
10%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +82%
6
CONNOR OF MALI
J: Phillip Enright · T: L J Archdeacon
Form: 0P9U4
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +219%
7
JULIES MOON
J: John Shinnick · T: Ms Margaret Mullins
12.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
12.0
 -49%
8
DID TELL
J: Mark McDonagh · T: Sean O O'Brien
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +18%
9
PREMIER PRINCESS
J: Philip Donovan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
Form: 50680
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +29%
10
DANNY POWER
J: Mark Walsh · T: John Queally
5.5 ·market 18%
3%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -83%
11
WIPEAWAYYOURTEARS
J: Alan King(7) · T: Michael Butler
Form: 23190
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org