Listowel 13:23: Value Analysis

Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)

Monday 21 September 2026

Maiden YLD 8.0f Class 0 11 runners
🏁 Result: Magna Victoria won (SP 5.5)
Our highest-rated★ Best value WILLIAMSBURG Our price 2/1 · Available 10/3 We make it 34% · the market says 23% · +47%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: DAWNMORE is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 25% vs the market's 45%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates WILLIAMSBURG top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Luke McAteer cold lately, 4% in the last two months
  • ✕ David Marnane's yard quiet lately, 6% in the last two months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WILLIAMSBURG ★ Top Rated
J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane
4.3 ·market 23%
34%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +47% 4th
2
DAWNMORE
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J S Bolger
2.2 ·market 45%
25%
45%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45% 3rd
3
CELESTIAL HEIGHTS
J: James Ryan · T: Jack W Davison
15.0 ·market 7%
18%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +169% 9th
4
PETROLIO
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +137% 6th
5
MAGNA VICTORIA
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
5.5 ·market 18%
5%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -72% Winner
6
PROFESSOR FINNEGAN
J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: J. P. Murtagh
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +79% 10th
7
ALFREDO DELGADO
J: Shane Foley · T: E McNamara
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
 +13% 8th
8
KING CHRISTOPH
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45% 2nd
9
MELCHIZEDEK
J: G. F. Carroll · T: M P Fogarty
151.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +361%market disagrees 11th
10
SONIC SABIHA
J: Rebecca Parsons(10) · T: David Marnane
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +43% 5th
11
OCEAN PHOENIX
J: Chris Hayes · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
9.2 ·market 11%
3%
11%
9.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -76% 7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org