Hamilton 13:43: Value Analysis

Racing TV Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Monday 21 September 2026

Other Handicap SFT 8.5f Class 6 7 runners
🏁 Result: Little Ted won (SP 2.0)
Our highest-rated LITTLE TED Our price 2/1 · Available evens We make it 33% · the market says 50%
★ Best value HOSTELRY Our price 7/2 · Available 9/2 We make it 21% · the market says 18% · +18%
Why the model rates LITTLE TED top (33% chance)
  • ✓ Race-fit, having run 3 days ago
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ The soft is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LITTLE TED ★ Top Rated
J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Tim Easterby
2.0 ·market 50%
33%
50%
2.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33% Winner
2
HOSTELRY
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Ruth Carr
5.5 ·market 18%
21%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +18% 3rd
3
APRIL DIAMOND
J: Cara Tuke(7) · T: Iain Jardine
10.0 ·market 10%
14%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +40% 7th
4
DARING LEADER
J: Lauren Young(3) · T: Christopher Kellett
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10% 4th
5
HALE BOPP
J: Amie Waugh · T: Daragh Bourke
15.0 ·market 7%
10%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +57% 6th
6
TOY SOLDIER
J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
 +2% 5th
7
MILLBUIE
J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -26% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org