Listowel 13:53: Value Analysis

GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap

Monday 21 September 2026 · result below

Other Handicap YLD 8.0f Class 0 16 runners
🏁 Result: Majestic King won (SP 4.5)
Our highest-rated ZARAAHMANDO Our price 10/3 · Available 11/4 We make it 23% · the market says 27%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Majestic King (7/2) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Zaraahmando (11/4) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Summer Snow the likely winner mid-race (matched at 7.60 from 20.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick ZARAAHMANDO (23%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates ZARAAHMANDO top (23% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Faoladh, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ Quick 6-day turnaround, which is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ZARAAHMANDO ★ Top Rated
J: Sam Coen(5) · T: A. Slattery
3.8 ·market 27%
23%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -13% 2nd
2
FAOLADH
J: Adam Browne-Souza(7) · T: A. Slattery
21.0 ·market 5%
13%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +166% 4th
3
MAJESTIC KING
J: Daniel King · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
4.5 ·market 22%
12%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -47% Winner
4
GREEN KITE
J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
6.0 ·market 17%
10%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41% 5th
5
RED HUGH ODONNELL
J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Gillian Scott
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +38% 6th
6
STELLAR VIEW
J: Conor Cusack(7) · T: Henry de Bromhead
26.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +102% 15th
7
VLHOVA
J: Shane Foley · T: G. O'Leary
9.0 ·market 11%
8%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32% 11th
8
STORM AVERTED
J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: Maurice Andrew Ahern
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21% 9th
9
WEGOTOGETHER
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell
7.0 ·market 14%
7%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -51% 10th
10
SUMMER SNOW
J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: Peter Lawlor
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -17% 8th
,
FAN CLUB NR
J: Chris Hayes · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9% Withdrawn
11
BUTTERMERE RIDGE
J: Diego Lima · T: Oliver McKiernan
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37% 3rd
12
GALLEY POINT
J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: T J O'Mara
36.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
36.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +30% 13th
13
LOCAL LAD
J: Danny O'Leary(10) · T: G. O'Leary
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19% 14th
14
LITTLE MISS P
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Gillian Scott
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% 7th
15
WHISKEY AND BEER
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Charles Coakley
201.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +359%market disagrees 12th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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