Beverley 13:30: Value Analysis

Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 22 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 10.0f Class 6 13 runners
🏁 Result: Snooker McCrew won (SP 4.33)
Our highest-rated★ Best value SNOOKER MCCREW Our price 2/1 · Available 10/3 We make it 33% · the market says 23% · +44%
Why the model rates SNOOKER MCCREW top (33% chance)

Ticks most boxes here — a winner 8 days ago and the yard firing at 15% in the fortnight. A burden of weight and a question over the trip are the snags, but solid claims across the board.

  • ✓ Max Comley's yard in form, 15% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SNOOKER MCCREW ★ Top Rated
J: Alfie Redman(5) · T: Max Comley
Form: 5661
4.3 ·market 23%
33%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +44% Winner
2
TIBERIO FORCE
J: Jack Nicholls · T: Simon Whitaker
Form: 67891 · D
8.0 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21% 3rd
3
LIGHTNING GALAXY
J: Rhys Elliott · T: Michael Dods
Form: 59486
5.5 ·market 18%
9%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49% 4th
4
DASH OF CLASS
J: Lloyd Applegate(7) · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Form: 53267
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +28% 9th
5
QUIRKE ON PAROLE
J: Olivia Haines(5) · T: Mark Walford
Form: 73930 · CD
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51% 2nd
6
STAR SUEPREME
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Lemos De Souza
Form: 40591 · C
4.5 ·market 22%
8%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65% 7th
7
CALEDONIAN DREAM
J: William Pyle · T: John Dawson
Form: 2006
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40% 5th
8
CAPTAIN BRUCE
J: Ethan Tindall(3) · T: Andrew Crook
Form: 09886 · D
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +251% 8th
9
GOLDEN SAMBA
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall · T: Tina Jackson
Form: 37647
12.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
12.0
 -45% 10th
10
SOHAMS ROGER
J: Isobelle Chalmers(7) · T: Neil Mechie
Form: 07409
101.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +347%market disagrees 11th
11
FURRST LADY
J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Roger Fell
Form: 08998
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
 +81% 6th
12
TWIN AND TONIC
J: Shay Farmer(3) · T: Roger Fell
Form: 0948
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +170% 12th
,
DANDYS ANGEL NR
J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: John Wainwright
Form: 36626 · CD
— ·market —
2%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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