Warwick 13:55: Value Analysis
Man Commercial Protection Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Tuesday 22 September 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PASSENGERONTHESHIP is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 42%. It may be beatable.
Preferred to In The Trenches here, with wins two starts back and four starts back, Harry Skelton at 31% in the last two months and a 30% pairing; eases in grade too, 18 days fresh.
- ✓ Preferred to In The Trenches, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 31% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton win 30% together
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
KIWI DE COTTE
★ Top Rated
2.8
·market 36%
|
77% |
36% |
2.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
+112% | 3rd |
| 2 |
IN THE TRENCHES
3.2
·market 31%
|
16% |
31% |
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-48% | Winner |
| 3 |
PASSENGERONTHESHIP
2.4
·market 42%
|
15% |
42% |
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-65% | 2nd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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