Goodwood 13:30: Value Analysis

Juddmonte Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Wednesday 23 September 2026

Maiden GD 10.0f Class 2 8 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value FASTIDYAH Our price 15/8 · Available 3/1 We make it 35% · the market says 25% · +41%

Why the model rates FASTIDYAH top (35% chance)

Ticks most boxes: 1m2f is bang on, a strong record against this class of rival, and Oisin Murphy firing at 18% in the last two months. Michael Bell's 7% yard and a dull last three runs temper it.

✓ Oisin Murphy riding well, 18% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m2f
✕ Michael Bell's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FASTIDYAH ★ Top Rated J: Oisin Murphy · T: Michael Bell Form: 4 4.0 ·market 25%	35%	25%	4.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+41%
2	SKYLAR J: Hector Crouch · T: Charlie Johnston Form: 3 4.3 ·market 23%	25%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	+9%
3	PLEASE DONT GO J: Tom Marquand · T: Richard Hughes Form: 042 6.5 ·market 15%	14%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-10%
4	DEIRA MOON J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Harry Eustace Form: 72 9.5 ·market 11%	11%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+5%
5	HENRIK IBSEN J: William Buick · T: John & Thady Gosden 4.0 ·market 25%	8%	25%	4.0	-67%
6	BUNDABERG J: Rob Hornby · T: Gary & Josh Moore Form: 05 11.0 ·market 9%	7%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-20%
7	LAURIGER J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 5 17.0 ·market 6%	7%	6%	17.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+17%
8	PLAY AGAIN SAMMY J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton Form: 9 51.0 ·market 2%	5%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+159%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org