Redcar 13:47: Value Analysis

Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 23 September 2026

Nursery GTF 8.0f Class 6 10 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value SON OF A FISH Our price 9/4 · Available 5/2 We make it 32% · the market says 29% · +10%
Why the model rates SON OF A FISH top (32% chance)

Eases in grade, is well treated on official ratings and boasts a record at this level that stands out; placed when running 15 days ago, though Richard Hannon's yard is quiet at 7% in the last two months.

  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Richard Hannon's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SON OF A FISH ★ Top Rated
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Richard Hannon
Form: 5373
3.5 ·market 29%
32%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
2
ASTRAL CALLING
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 6702
4.0 ·market 25%
17%
25%
4.0
 -32%
3
DAKOTA BRAVE
J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston
Form: 65344
8.5 ·market 12%
14%
12%
8.5
 +20%
4
HOPE OF ACKLAM
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
Form: 923
4.0 ·market 25%
14%
25%
4.0
 -44%
5
KING OF PERSIA
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 7768
15.0 ·market 7%
7%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
6
LOPEFERNZA
J: David Probert · T: David Loughnane
Form: 667
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
7
RIGHT UP MY ALI
J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Mark Walford
Form: 998
41.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +167%
8
DIPLOMACY
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
Form: 699
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +115%
9
CRAVEN FORCE
J: Tom Eaves · T: Craig Lidster
Form: 670
17.0 ·market 6%
4%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26%
10
WELLS FARGO STAGE
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 0590
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +70%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org