Listowel 13:55: Value Analysis

McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle

Wednesday 23 September 2026

Maiden GD 16.0f Class 0 18 runners

Our highest-rated LOVE ME TENDER Our price 5/1 · Available 2/5 We make it 16% · the market says 74%

No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates LOVE ME TENDER top (16% chance)

Paul Townend teaming up with W. P. Mullins at 60% is the strongest hand here, and 32 days off should have this one spot on; the sketchy last run and patchy consistency are the reservations, in stronger company today.

✓ Paul Townend and W. P. Mullins win 60% together
✓ Ideally fresh, 32 days since its last run
✕ Little to like about its run last time
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LOVE ME TENDER ★ Top Rated J: Paul Townend · T: W. P. Mullins 1.4 ·market 74%	16%	74%	1.4 ▼ Edge decreasing	-78%
2	EURO AGENT J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott Form: R5722 13.0 ·market 8%	14%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+82%
3	BUD FOX J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: 36754 · D 7.0 ·market 14%	13%	14%	7.0	-12%
4	TYSON FURY J: Sean Flanagan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan Form: 62032 · D 5.5 ·market 18%	11%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-38%
5	APPROVAL J: Tom Kelly(7) · T: E McNamara Form: 55053 9.0 ·market 11%	9%	11%	9.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-18%
6	THYER J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Maurice Andrew Ahern Form: 65325 15.0 ·market 7%	8%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%
7	OMAKASE J: Cian Cullinan(7) · T: P G Fahey D 34.0 ·market 3%	6%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+111%
8	JULES WINFIELD J: Daniel King · T: A. J. Martin 19.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+9%
9	MAGNA GEE GEE J: Aidan Kelly · T: Patrick J Flynn Form: R6310 176.0 ·market 1%	5%	1%	176.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+742%market disagrees
10	FAERIE TALES J: Ben Kennedy(7) · T: P G Fahey Form: 0034 34.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+46%
11	BORN DE CERES J: Danny Gilligan · T: Paul John Gilligan Form: 6 81.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+171%
,	JOHN GUN NR J: Paddy Cody · T: Kieran Purcell Form: 95 — ·market —	3%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
12	INDIVIDUALISM J: Calum Hogan(5) · T: E McNamara Form: 27676 29.0 ·market 3%	3%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%
13	TALKING TOUGH J: Mr C G Ryan(7) · T: S M Duffy Form: 08740 151.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+221%
14	THEPOETSLODGE J: Kieren Buckley · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: P00 170.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	170.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+214%
15	MESSIRE DES BORDES J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: 80 151.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+129%
16	KINGSTON SILVER J: Danny Mullins · T: W J Lanigan Form: 09 201.0 ·market 0%	1%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+166%
17	KILMOND KNIGHT J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: David Richard Barry Form: U078 201.0 ·market 0%	1%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+134%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org