Newmarket 13:15: Value Analysis

Plantation Stud British EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)

Thursday 24 September 2026

Maiden GD 8.0f Class 3 7 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value NETHERSTREAM Our price 5/4 · Available 2/1 We make it 44% · the market says 33% · +33%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CODE OF HONOUR is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 10% vs the market's 36%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates NETHERSTREAM top (44% chance)

Solid claims across the board: ran better than the bare result 27 days ago against notably stronger company, and eases in grade here for a yard striking at 17% in the last two months. Trip the only query.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Jane Chapple-Hyam's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NETHERSTREAM ★ Top Rated
J: David Egan · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
Form: 35
3.0 ·market 33%
44%
33%
3.0
 +33%
2
SYDNEY CARTON
J: Cieren Fallon · T: James Owen
Form: 3073
12.0 ·market 8%
17%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +102%
3
CODE OF HONOUR
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
2.8 ·market 36%
10%
36%
2.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -71%
4
HAMRIN
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
3.5 ·market 29%
10%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66%
5
DEL PEARO
J: Christian Howarth(3) · T: John Ryan
Form: 64
29.0 ·market 3%
9%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +169%
6
EPISTLE
J: George Wood · T: Heather Main
Form: 6
70.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
70.0
 +471%market disagrees
7
LEAD THE SQUAD
J: Liam Wright(3) · T: George Scott
Form: 87
51.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
51.0
 +217%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org