Pontefract 13:32: Value Analysis

ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Thursday 24 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 5.0f Class 6 8 runners
Our highest-rated JOJO RABBIT Our price 2/1 · Available 15/8 We make it 33% · the market says 35%
★ Best value BUST A MOON Our price 5/1 · Available 9/1 We make it 16% · the market says 10% · +64%
Why the model rates JOJO RABBIT top (33% chance)

Well treated on official ratings and nicely in at the weights, and he eases in grade after that ninth in much stronger company 16 days ago; distance and going experience help, though he is yet to beat much.

  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
1
JOJO RABBIT ★ Top Rated
J: William Pyle · T: Ruth Carr
Form: 64049 · CD
2.9 ·market 35%
33%
35%
2.9
-6%
2
ALBEGONE
J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 65129 · D
3.5 ·market 29%
19%
29%
3.5
-32%
4
DANGER ALERT
J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: Adam Kirby
Form: 47496 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.0
-9%
5
GOLDEN PROSPERITY
J: Ethan Tindall(3) · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
Form: 37270 · D
7.5 ·market 13%
8%
13%
7.5
-42%
6
NAD ALSHIBA SNOW
J: Jack Callan · T: Mike Murphy
Form: 50554
19.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
+39%
7
ZIVAS STAR
J: Rhys Elliott · T: Simon Whitaker
Form: 76728
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
-19%
8
TILSWORTH TURF
J: Oliver Carmichael(5) · T: J. R. Jenkins
Form: 90893
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
+20%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org