Perth 13:39: Value Analysis
Saltire Hospitality EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (EBF Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Thursday 24 September 2026
Preferred to Biglesisback on 4lb better terms, and the Sean Bowen and Gordon Elliott pairing wins at 37% with the rider in good heart at 15% in the fortnight; the last three runs disappoint, but he has been meeting better.
- ✓ Preferred to Biglesisback, 4lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Sean Bowen and Gordon Elliott win 37% together
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
POETIC TWIST
★ Top Rated
2.2
·market 45%
|
50% |
45% |
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+10% | |
| 2 |
BIGLESISBACK
5.5
·market 18%
|
22% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+22% | |
| 3 |
DATSTHEHOLYALLOFIT
4.5
·market 22%
|
14% |
22% |
4.5
|
-35% | |
| 4 |
KINGSIDE LADY
4.5
·market 22%
|
13% |
22% |
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-43% | |
| 5 |
SKY BLUE RIBBON
21.0
·market 5%
|
9% |
5% |
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+80% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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