Worcester 13:30: Value Analysis

Read Johnny Burke's Blog At Copybet Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

Friday 25 September 2026

Novice Hcap Chase GD 23.0f Class 3 5 runners
Our highest-rated LITTLE LEDGEND Our price 10/3 · Available 6/5 We make it 24% · the market says 45%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates LITTLE LEDGEND top (24% chance)

Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy score at 28% together and the rider is at 13% in the fortnight, but he steps up markedly in company and did little when he ran 33 days ago.

  • ✓ Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy win 28% together
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Sean Bowen riding well, 13% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
,
EL CAPITAINE NR
J: Ben Jones · T: Kayley Woollacott
Form: 14371 · D
3.2 ·market 31%
36%
31%
3.2
 +16% Withdrawn
1
LITTLE LEDGEND ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
Form: 23221 · C
2.2 ·market 45%
24%
45%
2.2
 -48%
2
TURNDLIGHTSDOWNLOW
J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Martin Keighley
Form: 11222
4.0 ·market 25%
23%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -10%
3
SERIOUS CHAT
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
Form: 17210 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
13%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
4
KAYF DANCER
J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
Form: 08162 · D
3.8 ·market 27%
8%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -69%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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