Newmarket 13:15: Value Analysis

Betway British Ebf Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race)

Friday 25 September 2026

Listed GD 8.0f Class 1 9 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value ESTISSA Our price 7/2 · Available 4/1 We make it 22% · the market says 20% · +10%
Why the model rates ESTISSA top (22% chance)

Preferred to Arisaig, 3lb better in and better proven at this level, she ticks most boxes: well treated, strong against this class, with Oisin Murphy at 19% in the last two months. The good is the only query.

  • ✓ Preferred to Arisaig, 3lb better in at the weights and better proven at this class
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ESTISSA ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Murphy · T: James Fanshawe
Form: 12133 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
22%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
2
ARISAIG
J: Jamie Spencer · T: Charlie Johnston
Form: 24837 · D
5.5 ·market 18%
19%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +5%
3
ALOBAYYAH
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
Form: 85317 · D
3.8 ·market 27%
16%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -38%
4
LIZZANA
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
Form: 211 · D
6.5 ·market 15%
12%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20%
5
GILDING THE LILY
J: William Buick · T: John & Thady Gosden
Form: 211 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
9%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
6
SONG N DANCE
J: Saffie Osborne · T: S. P. C. Woods
Form: 22501 · D
15.0 ·market 7%
8%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +20%
7
BLINGYS SISTER
J: Clifford Lee · T: Hugo Palmer
Form: 50436
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
 -34%
8
CRYSTAL FLYER
J: Ray Dawson · T: Ben Haslam
Form: 97025
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +176%
9
APPLESANDPEARS
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Edward Bethell
Form: 83661 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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