Haydock 13:35: Value Analysis

William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes

Saturday 26 September 2026

Other Handicap SFT 8.0f Class 2 10 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value CENTIGRADE Our price 15/8 · Available 11/2 We make it 35% · the market says 15% · +126%
Why the model rates CENTIGRADE top (35% chance)

Beckett is sharp with handicappers at 19% recently and this progressive sort has a strong record against this class, drops in from a field averaging 104 against 96 today, and can be forgiven a modest run 10 days ago.

  • ✓ Ralph Beckett sharp with handicappers, 19% recently
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CENTIGRADE ★ Top Rated
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett
Form: 168 · D
6.5 ·market 15%
35%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +126%
2
ETERNAL FORCE
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
Form: 17267 · CD
4.0 ·market 25%
32%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +26%
3
GODWINSON
J: David Probert · T: Jack Channon
Form: 00000 · D
9.5 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
4
COMMANDERS INTENT
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: George Scott
Form: 3125
9.0 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +5%
5
LOOKA
J: Sean Levey · T: Marco Botti
Form: 61551 · D
8.5 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.5
 -36%
6
ARCTIC THUNDER
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker
Form: 68116 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -17%
7
MISTER WINSTON
J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
Form: 10078 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -21%
8
CERULEAN BAY
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
Form: 84290 · CD
7.5 ·market 13%
5%
13%
7.5
 -61%
9
CHECKANDCHALLENGE
J: Callum Shepherd · T: William Knight
Form: 60300 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20%
10
DESPERATE DAN
J: George Wood · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam
Form: 14196 · D
21.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org