Curragh 13:30: Value Analysis

Market Square Monasterevin Irish EBF Maiden

Saturday 26 September 2026

Maiden GTY 6.0f Class 0 14 runners
Our highest-rated BENOWN Our price 3/1 · Available 4/5 We make it 25% · the market says 56%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates BENOWN top (25% chance)

Runner-up when he ran 48 days ago, Benown has 6f spot on and holds a strong record against this class, preferred to Controlla on trip terms; still unexposed with something to prove, but the claims are the soundest here.

  • ✓ Preferred to Controlla, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BENOWN ★ Top Rated
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Form: 2
1.8 ·market 56%
25%
56%
1.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -54%
2
CONTROLLA
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
Form: 2056
3.8 ·market 27%
16%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%
3
HERALDS MARCH
J: Colin Keane · T: G. M. Lyons
Form: 7
6.0 ·market 17%
14%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -17%
4
JUNGLE WISE
J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel James Murphy
Form: 2
11.0 ·market 9%
13%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
5
KATTY
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Adrian Sexton
Form: 88
51.0 ·market 2%
11%
2%
51.0
 +440%market disagrees
6
CHAMPION BASMA
J: Chris Hayes · T: E J O'Neill
Form: 7
67.0 ·market 1%
9%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +515%market disagrees
7
SONNY HAYES
J: W. J. Lee · T: Robson De Aguiar
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
 -22%
8
AR SON NA CUISE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
101.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +465%market disagrees
9
MOON GYPSY
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: J G Burns
201.0 ·market 0%
5%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +957%market disagrees
10
STARLIT
J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 60
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +20%
11
FEN PHASEE
J: Rory Cleary · T: Sean Davis
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +562%market disagrees
12
ROYAL SOVEREIGN
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +88%
13
SHAKE IT OUT
J: R. P. Whelan · T: Kieran P Cotter
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
 +71%
14
BRAGEIRO
J: Luke McAteer · T: Ross O'Sullivan
Form: 00
201.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +326%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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