Newmarket 13:22: Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes

Saturday 26 September 2026

Nursery GD 7.0f Class 2 11 runners
Our highest-rated FIRE THUNDER Our price 3/1 · Available 7/2 We make it 25% · the market says 22%
★ Best value NEXT OF KIN Our price 9/2 · Available 15/2 We make it 18% · the market says 12% · +55%
Why the model rates FIRE THUNDER top (25% chance)

Botti's yard strikes at 19% in the last two months, and this ticks most boxes: strong record against this class, a win three runs back, second when it ran 42 days ago, with only a lowly official rating against.

  • ✓ Marco Botti's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FIRE THUNDER ★ Top Rated
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Marco Botti
Form: 22152
4.5 ·market 22%
25%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +12%
2
NEXT OF KIN
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
Form: 317
8.5 ·market 12%
18%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +55%
3
SIERRA BELLE
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett
Form: 221
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
4
MARSALA
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Ralph Beckett
Form: 473
6.5 ·market 15%
15%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +0%
5
ZEPHYRA
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Marco Botti
Form: 222
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +11%
6
AL SAMSAMA
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Richard Hughes
Form: 12
7.0 ·market 14%
10%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -28%
7
POLYXENA
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams
Form: 11
7.0 ·market 14%
7%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
8
KIAH
J: David Egan · T: Brian Meehan
Form: 0324
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
 -24%
9
TIE A NAVYRIBBON
J: Josephine Gordon · T: William Stone
Form: 3610
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
 +77%
10
BYMIDDAYTOMORROW
J: Clifford Lee · T: Ed Walker
Form: 81173 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
5%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
11
TANSY LANE
J: Robert Havlin · T: James Owen
Form: 671 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
 -45%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org