Epsom 13:37: Value Analysis

Betfred 'Turbo Boost' Nursery Handicap Stakes

Sunday 27 September 2026

Nursery GD 7.0f Class 4 9 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value THE GINGER KID Our price 5/2 · Available 7/2 We make it 28% · the market says 22% · +27%
Why the model rates THE GINGER KID top (28% chance)

Solid claims across the board — well treated on official ratings, a level record that stands out and a good effort three runs back — and he eases in grade from company averaging 80. Trip the only real query.

  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
REGAL TIGER
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Hugo Palmer
Form: 422
4.5 ·market 22%
20%
22%
4.5
-11%
3
GIVE HAND
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
Form: 33
4.3 ·market 23%
16%
23%
4.3
-32%
4
ROGUE IMPERIAL
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Archie Watson
Form: 53721
8.5 ·market 12%
14%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
+21%
5
ANGEL OF DESIRE
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Amanda Perrett
Form: 43
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
+4%
6
CLIVE THE WRITER
J: Hector Crouch · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
Form: 716 · D
9.5 ·market 11%
8%
11%
9.5
-27%
,
FOSCARINI NR
J: Harry Davies · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 5629
— ·market —
7%
—
—
— Withdrawn
7
LEUCOTHEA
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
Form: 20200
23.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
+49%
8
TELEGRAPHIC
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Johnston
Form: 4120 · D
7.0 ·market 14%
5%
14%
7.0
-63%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org