Curragh 13:25: Value Analysis

Army Equitation Centenary Irish EBF Maiden

Sunday 27 September 2026

Maiden YLD 7.0f Class 0 16 runners
Our highest-rated HMAS PERTH Our price 7/2 · Available 4/5 We make it 21% · the market says 55%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates HMAS PERTH top (21% chance)

Preferred to Raging Bull on both class and trip, and there was a second in the run 15 days ago; W. M. Lordan and Aidan O'Brien strike at 33% together, with 7f bang on. Consistency is the query.

  • ✓ Preferred to Raging Bull, better proven at this class and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ W. M. Lordan and Aidan O'Brien win 33% together
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HMAS PERTH ★ Top Rated
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
1.8 ·market 55%
21%
55%
1.8
 -61%
2
RAGING BULL
J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 7
2.8 ·market 36%
17%
36%
2.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
3
MUSCOGEE NATION
J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan
Form: 7
10.2 ·market 10%
14%
10%
10.2
 +44%
4
YELLOW SKY
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 56
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +136%
5
MAXIMILIEN LUCE
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +16%
6
JOHNTOM
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell
Form: 8
67.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +339%market disagrees
7
GOLDEN IDOL
J: W. J. Lee · T: Henry de Bromhead
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
8
ACTIVITY
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 8
51.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +181%
9
AH SURE LOOK
J: J M Sheridan · T: Martin Hassett
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +165%
10
ALPHA BETTY
J: Rory Cleary · T: C W J Farrell
81.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
81.0
 +260%
11
ONE FLASH
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Adrian Sexton
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +174%
12
NORMANTON
J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
13
SOHO DRAGON
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: John Joseph Murphy
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
 +74%
14
TSALI
J: Chris Hayes · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
15
OVERHEAD DRIVE
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: John Joseph Murphy
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +18%
16
SILK TWIST
J: Scott McCullagh · T: Thomas Mullins
Form: 0
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +35%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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