Down Royal 13:24: Value Analysis

Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap

Monday 28 September 2026

Nursery GD 5.0f Class 0 8 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value INVINCIBLE IRISH Our price 5/2 · Available 9/2 We make it 28% · the market says 18% · +54%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SANTO PARVENUE is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 22% vs the market's 52%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates INVINCIBLE IRISH top (28% chance)

Ticks most boxes here: he ran 11 days ago so fitness is assured, beats this class of rival regularly and remains open to improvement. The trip and this level are the questions, though he was fourth that day.

  • ✓ Race-fit, having run 11 days ago
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
INVINCIBLE IRISH ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin
Form: 0074
5.5 ·market 18%
28%
18%
5.5
 +54%
2
PREMIER VIEW
J: Conor Cusack(7) · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 81 · CD
3.8 ·market 27%
27%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 +0%
3
SANTO PARVENUE
J: W. J. Lee · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
Form: 4471 · D
1.9 ·market 52%
22%
52%
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
4
THE DRAMBLING MAN
J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
Form: 96903
6.0 ·market 17%
18%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
5
SYRAH
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Charles Weld
Form: 085
26.0 ·market 4%
13%
4%
26.0
 +234%
6
STELLAR PATH
J: Rory Cleary · T: Kieran P Cotter
Form: 88908
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -14%
7
ANNIE TIPS
J: Luke McAteer · T: James Dowling
Form: 880
26.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +48%
8
RATHBRAN LADY
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany
Form: 00750
19.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -10%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org