Brighton 13:30: Value Analysis

The Matchbook Signup - Get 20% Back On Losses Handicap Stakes

Monday 28 September 2026

Other Handicap GTF 5.5f Class 6 10 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value DANGER ALERT Our price 2/1 · Available 3/1 We make it 33% · the market says 25% · +31%

Why the model rates DANGER ALERT top (33% chance)

Solid claims across the board — well handicapped, proven on good to firm and clearly preferred to Bated Breeze on trip and ground. Weight is the enemy, though, and there was little to like about his run 4 days ago.

✓ Preferred to Bated Breeze, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
✓ Race-fit, having run 4 days ago
✓ Record at this level stands out
✕ Little to like about its run last time
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	DANGER ALERT ★ Top Rated J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Adam Kirby Form: 74966 · D 4.0 ·market 25%	33%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+31%
2	BATED BREEZE J: Finley Marsh · T: Gary & Josh Moore Form: 61403 · CD 5.0 ·market 20%	18%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-10%
3	DREAMBIRD DOLLY J: Rossa Ryan · T: John Gallagher Form: 22542 · D 7.0 ·market 14%	12%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-19%
4	HARRY BROWN J: Rob Hornby · T: Peter Crate Form: 05387 · D 4.5 ·market 22%	11%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-50%
5	BEACH PARTEE J: Christian Howarth(3) · T: Scott Dixon Form: 28334 · CD 7.5 ·market 13%	7%	13%	7.5	-44%
6	ANGLESEY LAD J: William Cox · T: Scott Dixon Form: 754 21.0 ·market 5%	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+49%
7	DIAMOND DREAMER J: David Probert · T: Patrick Chamings Form: 37607 · D 23.0 ·market 4%	7%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+54%
8	ROMAN SPRING J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger Form: 45421 · CD 6.5 ·market 15%	6%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-61%
9	STAPLEFORD PARK J: Kieren Fox · T: Michael Attwater Form: 27476 34.0 ·market 3%	5%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+80%
10	DESDEMONA J: Paddy Bradley · T: Michael Attwater Form: 65768 · D 81.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+257%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 45 races today. You can read 4 of them free. A trial opens the other 41 the same way, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life.

Continue with Google

or use your email

1. Create a free account (no card needed). 2. Start your 7-day trial (card required). 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
See pricing · already a member? Sign in

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org