Roscommon 13:35: Value Analysis

Athleague Maiden Hurdle

Monday 28 September 2026

Maiden GD 15.5f Class 0 15 runners
Our highest-rated TELEGRAM SAM Our price 4/1 · Available 11/8 We make it 21% · the market says 42%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates TELEGRAM SAM top (21% chance)

Third when he ran 25 days ago against much stronger company, he now finds a weaker race and arrives ideally fresh with a strong record against this class; the 0% jockey-trainer pairing is the one snag.

  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 25 days since its last run
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Sean Flanagan and Adrian Murray have a poor record together, 0% winners
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
TELEGRAM SAM ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Flanagan · T: Adrian Murray
Form: 43
2.4 ·market 42%
21%
42%
2.4
 -51%
2
SONAS
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 82
6.0 ·market 17%
14%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -16%
3
DIRECT APPROACH
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 63593
4.3 ·market 23%
13%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44%
4
THE FARMERS BAR
J: Ben Harvey · T: Cian Collins
Form: 7
5.0 ·market 20%
11%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -43%
5
THE FLYING RAMBLER
J: Daniel King · T: J P Dempsey
Form: 780
23.0 ·market 4%
9%
4%
23.0
 +102%
6
LUCKY SIGNAL
J: Sam Ewing · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 8S0
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +52%
7
GOD THE HIGHNESS
J: Donagh Meyler · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 00590
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
 -40%
8
GRATITUDEFORGRACE
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 07
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +139%
9
EASY LISTENING
J: Simon Torrens · T: Aidan Anthony Howard
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +44%
10
ABANDO
J: James Smith(5) · T: A. McCann
Form: 53487
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -30%
11
HILL OF BERRIES
J: Jordan Gainford · T: J P Dempsey
12.0 ·market 8%
3%
8%
12.0
 -61%
12
PALLATINE HILLS
J: Kieren Buckley · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
Form: 06050
13.0 ·market 8%
3%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63%
13
EVERIN DREAM
J: Peter Smithers(5) · T: Jarlath P Fahey
21.0 ·market 5%
2%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
14
EMMAMIA
J: Phillip Enright · T: Mark Michael McNiff
Form: 00
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +54%
15
NEAT AS A PIN
J: Rian Lane(7) · T: E Bolger
Form: U08
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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