Ayr 14:08: Value Analysis

Christmas Party Day Dancing @Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 29 September 2026

Other Handicap HVY 8.0f Class 5 8 runners

Our highest-rated EMPIRESTATEOFMIND Our price 9/4 · Available 6/4 We make it 31% · the market says 40%

★ Best value LEOPARDS ROCK Our price 5/1 · Available 13/2 We make it 16% · the market says 13% · +22%

Why the model rates EMPIRESTATEOFMIND top (31% chance)

Preferred to Motawaared on both trip and ground, and a winner over 1m before, which counts on this heavy going. Ran 9 days ago; consistency has been a worry and this level is unproven.

✓ Preferred to Motawaared, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
✓ Has won over 1m before
✕ Unproven at this level
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	EMPIRESTATEOFMIND ★ Top Rated J: Jack Callan · T: John & Sean Quinn Form: 50012 · CD 2.5 ·market 40%	31%	40%	2.5	-24%
2	MOTAWAARED J: Lauren Young(3) · T: Jim Goldie Form: 42225 3.8 ·market 27%	21%	27%	3.8	-20%
3	LEOPARDS ROCK J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Edward Bethell Form: 32354 7.5 ·market 13%	16%	13%	7.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+22%
4	SWIFT SALIAN J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron Form: 22084 · D 10.0 ·market 10%	10%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+3%
5	KINDEST NATION J: Jack Nicholls · T: Hugo Palmer Form: 03093 21.0 ·market 5%	8%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+59%
6	PENELOPES SISTER J: Shay Farmer(3) · T: Jim Goldie Form: 56723 · CD 8.5 ·market 12%	7%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-38%
7	RUNNINSONOFAGUN J: Alex Jary · T: Tristan Davidson Form: 26106 · CD 13.0 ·market 8%	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-13%
8	ARKENSTAAR J: Rhys Elliott · T: Michael Dods Form: 14306 · D 21.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+17%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org