Bath 14:02: Value Analysis

Jdl Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 29 September 2026

Other Handicap GTF 10.0f Class 5 12 runners
Our highest-rated DECALOGUE Our price 9/4 · Available 9/4 We make it 31% · the market says 31%
★ Best value SHADY BAY Our price 11/2 · Available 6/1 We make it 16% · the market says 14% · +12%
Why the model rates DECALOGUE top (31% chance)

Preferred to Shady Bay, 5lb better in at the weights and ideally fresh; the run 15 days ago gave little to like and Mason Paetel is cold at 5% in the fortnight, but the claims still stack up here.

  • ✓ Preferred to Shady Bay, 5lb better in at the weights and a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 15 days since its last run
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Mason Paetel cold lately, 5% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DECALOGUE ★ Top Rated
J: Mason Paetel · T: Jamie Osborne
Form: 84321
3.2 ·market 31%
31%
31%
3.2
 -0%
2
SHADY BAY
J: Ashley Lewis · T: Tom Ward
Form: 33427 · D
7.0 ·market 14%
16%
14%
7.0
 +12%
3
PANGBOURNE
J: Olivia Haines(5) · T: Roger Teal
Form: 55533
6.0 ·market 17%
14%
17%
6.0
 -17%
4
CAPTAIN FOX
J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Richard Hughes
Form: 65575
8.0 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%
5
DRYBURGH
J: Luke Catton · T: Oli Rix
Form: 32829
7.0 ·market 14%
8%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44%
6
OMAN
J: Myla Coppins(5) · T: Tony Carroll
Form: 47965 · D
7.4 ·market 14%
7%
14%
7.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46%
7
ITS LIFE
J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: Kathy Turner
Form: 94125
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -12%
8
POMME POMME
J: Jack Dace · T: Jack Channon
Form: 95370 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -31%
9
ARCADIAN NIGHTS
J: Hope Regan(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
Form: 54659 · D
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +21%
,
COTSWOLD COTTAGE NR
J: Harry Vigors(3) · T: Faye Bramley
Form: 14617 · D
9.5 ·market 11%
5%
11%
9.5
 -55% Withdrawn
10
GALLANT PIONEER
J: Seamus Cronin · T: Charlie Pike
Form: 565
15.0 ·market 7%
4%
7%
15.0
 -36%
11
RASCALLION
J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: Henrietta C Knight
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -1%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org