Cork 13:55: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

Tuesday 29 September 2026

Maiden YTS 5.0f Class 0 13 runners

Our highest-rated BOLD COMMANDER Our price 9/4 · Available 8/11 We make it 31% · the market says 58%

No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates BOLD COMMANDER top (31% chance)

Ticks most boxes: ran well three runs back at a similar level, W. M. Lordan riding well at 16% in the fortnight and Aidan O'Brien's yard firing 17% winners. Unexposed type, and the trip asks a question.

✓ W. M. Lordan riding well, 16% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Ran well three runs back
✓ Aidan O'Brien's yard in form, 17% winners in the fortnight
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	BOLD COMMANDER ★ Top Rated J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 52555 1.7 ·market 58%	31%	58%	1.7 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%
2	SAPPHIRE SUN J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 60 4.2 ·market 24%	17%	24%	4.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%
3	ALFRESCO J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Form: 76 7.5 ·market 13%	11%	13%	7.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-19%
4	ANTHONY OF LISBON J: Freya Frain(10) · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 5 13.0 ·market 8%	10%	8%	13.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+34%
5	EL DOMINO J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery Form: 603 6.5 ·market 15%	9%	15%	6.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-42%
6	LION OF FORTUNE J: R. P. Whelan · T: Kieran P Cotter Form: 0 26.0 ·market 4%	8%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+107%
7	SPIRIT OF THE NITE J: James Ryan · T: T G McCourt Form: 20 19.0 ·market 5%	8%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+47%
8	SORRENTO SUNSET J: Jamie Powell · T: Daniel McLoughlin Form: 06 37.5 ·market 3%	7%	3%	37.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+170%
9	LOLAPIPA J: Alan Persse(5) · T: M A Cahill 81.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+247%
10	SONNY HAYES J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar 5.2 ·market 19%	4%	19%	5.2	-78%
11	BETTERCALLTHEBOSS J: Rory Cleary · T: Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch Form: 80 126.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+269%
12	HABU J: Orla Tynan(7) · T: M J Tynan Form: 0 81.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+93%
13	IMPLY J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Charles Weld Form: 06 101.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+108%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org