Musselburgh 13:38: Value Analysis

British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Wednesday 30 September 2026

Novice Stakes GD 5.0f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Sable Noir won (SP 6.0)
Our highest-rated SOD HALL LANE Our price 4/11 · Available 1/5 We make it 73% · the market says 88%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates SOD HALL LANE top (73% chance)

Won when running 28 days ago, ideally fresh now and handles the good, with a strong record against this class; the step into stronger company and Zak Wheatley's 8% in the fortnight are the queries, but ticks most boxes.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✕ Zak Wheatley cold lately, 8% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SOD HALL LANE ★ Top Rated
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
Form: 21 · D
1.1 ·market 88%
73%
88%
1.1
 -17% 2nd
2
SABLE NOIR
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 83
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26% Winner
3
JUST FOR MONTY
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
Form: 56
51.0 ·market 2%
12%
2%
51.0
 +511%market disagrees 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org