Catterick 13:57: Value Analysis
Racing To School Nursery Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 30 September 2026
Scored when running seven days ago, has the trip experience and holds a strong record against this class; the low official mark and limited testing are minor caveats against a horse that ticks most boxes on our figures.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DUCHESS OF IMMATIN
★ Top Rated
1.6
·market 62%
|
38% |
62% |
1.6
▲ Edge increasing
|
-39% | 2nd |
| 2 |
BLADEY LADY
2.8
·market 36%
|
21% |
36% |
2.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | Winner |
| 3 |
BAILA MORENA
17.0
·market 6%
|
12% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+102% | 3rd |
| 4 |
JOHNS POWER
17.0
·market 6%
|
11% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+94% | 4th |
| 5 |
PURRISTA
67.0
·market 1%
|
11% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+609%market disagrees | 5th |
| 6 |
REDROSECASTANA
138.5
·market 1%
|
7% |
1% |
138.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+899%market disagrees | 6th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org