Warwick 14:00: Value Analysis

Oddschecker Bet Builder 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Wednesday 30 September 2026

Novice Hurdle GTF 16.0f Class 4 7 runners

Our highest-rated EREMENKO We make it 28% · the market says —

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates EREMENKO top (28% chance)

Preferred to Northern Milan on the ground, and with a strong record against this class, form in better company than today's and a sound effort three runs back, solid claims; Theo Gillard's 7% in the fortnight is the query.

✓ Preferred to Northern Milan, better on the ground
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Theo Gillard cold lately, 7% in the fortnight
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	EREMENKO ★ Top Rated J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain Form: 21P4F · D — ·market —	28%	—	—	—
2	NORTHERN MILAN J: Brian Hughes · T: Adrian Keatley Form: 0 — ·market —	19%	—	—	—
3	THEPASSINGCYCLONE J: Harry Bannister · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis Form: 56U5 — ·market —	18%	—	—	—
4	DARK TIDE RISING J: Kielan Woods · T: Tom George Form: 31 · D — ·market —	13%	—	—	—
5	KIND INTENTION J: Ben Poste · T: Tom Symonds Form: 1 · D — ·market —	9%	—	—	—
6	ESTHER SPRING J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams Form: 8673 — ·market —	7%	—	—	—
7	WANNABE SPORTY J: James Best · T: Martin Keighley Form: 7 — ·market —	6%	—	—	—

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org