Bellewstown 13:00: Value Analysis
Racing TV Nursery Handicap
Thursday 1 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CROMANE is the market favourite (2.0) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 50%. It may be beatable.
Ticks most boxes: proven against this class of rival, ran well two runs back and took third when she ran 27 days ago against notably stronger company. Eases in grade, though one of the lowest marks here.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
IPPY
★ Top Rated
7.5
·market 13%
|
26% |
13% |
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+93% | |
| 2 |
CROMANE
2.0
·market 50%
|
19% |
50% |
2.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-62% | |
| 3 |
SCARLET DREAM
13.0
·market 8%
|
17% |
8% |
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+123% | |
| 4 |
VIOLET BE HUMBLE
9.3
·market 11%
|
13% |
11% |
9.3
▲ Edge increasing
|
+25% | |
| 5 |
GREEN SPARKLE
5.5
·market 18%
|
12% |
18% |
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-36% | |
| 6 |
SISTER NANCY
8.0
·market 12%
|
8% |
12% |
8.0
|
-38% | |
| 7 |
DROPPING DIMES
27.5
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
27.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+48% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org