Nottingham 13:23: Value Analysis

Ebf Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

Thursday 1 October 2026

Maiden GD 5.0f Class 4 4 runners
Our highest-rated CAELUM Our price 4/5 · Available 8/13 We make it 56% · the market says 64%
★ Best value CRIMSON BLAZE Our price 9/2 · Available 15/2 We make it 18% · the market says 12% · +49%
Why the model rates CAELUM top (56% chance)

Chief claims: runner-up when he ran 28 days ago against far stronger company, he comes here ideally fresh and open to any amount of improvement. Still a maiden and a shade inconsistent, but a big player.

  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 28 days since its last run
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CAELUM ★ Top Rated
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 2
1.6 ·market 64%
56%
64%
1.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -12%
,
LADY BRANKSOME NR
J: Callum Shepherd · T: Michael Bell
Form: 526
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
2
CRIMSON BLAZE
J: William Buick · T: Richard Hughes
Form: 68643
8.5 ·market 12%
18%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +49%
3
VIKING BARBIE
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Ollie Sangster
Form: 32435
2.9 ·market 35%
16%
35%
2.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
4
RUNAWAY LUCY
J: Dale Swift · T: Brian Ellison
Form: 8
67.0 ·market 1%
10%
1%
67.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +577%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org