Salisbury 13:30: Value Analysis

Salisbury Annual Badgeholders 'Bluestocking' British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Thursday 1 October 2026

Novice Stakes GTS 8.0f Class 3 12 runners
Our highest-rated MARTABAN Our price 5/1 · Available 18/1 We make it 17% · the market says 5%
⚡ Model standout MARTABAN model rates it 17% but the market has it an outsider (19.0). A higher-risk each-way angle.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: YAMANA is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 6% vs the market's 40%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates MARTABAN top (17% chance)

Marginally preferred to Somerton, and he ran better than the result suggests when he ran 36 days ago. Mostly an unraced field here, so confidence is low, the trip unproven and Bishop cold at 6% in the fortnight.

  • ✓ Preferred to Somerton, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Charles Bishop cold lately, 6% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MARTABAN ★ Top Rated
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 4
19.0 ·market 5%
17%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +221%
2
SOMERTON
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
Form: 33
3.0 ·market 33%
17%
33%
3.0
 -50%
3
BOYS SLIPPER
J: Nicola Currie · T: Henry Candy
41.0 ·market 2%
9%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +265%
4
SHARED ODYSSEY
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Hugo Palmer
Form: 6
19.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +60%
5
GRAN DIA
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding
8.0 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%
6
SEAGOING
J: Luke Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
41.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +224%
7
SIR MARRYAT
J: David Egan · T: Brian Meehan
41.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +184%
8
STAR ROSE
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett
8.5 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -44%
9
YAMANA
J: Colin Keane · T: Ralph Beckett
2.5 ·market 40%
6%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -85%
10
HECATAEUS
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Ed Dunlop
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
11
HUMBLE PYLE
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +91%
12
WARRIORS CHANT
J: Jason Watson · T: Gary & Josh Moore
Form: 7
101.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
101.0
 +264%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org