Gowran Park 13:21: Value Analysis

Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle

Friday 2 October 2026

Maiden YTS 16.5f Class 0 13 runners
Our highest-rated BUNKER BUSTER Our price 10/3 · Available 6/4 We make it 23% · the market says 40%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MICHONNE is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 18% vs the market's 44%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates BUNKER BUSTER top (23% chance)

Ticks most boxes: three sound runs behind it, a strong record against this class, Philip Byrnes at 14% in the last two months and C Byrnes's yard at 17% in the fortnight. Trip and 157 days off are queries.

  • ✓ Philip Byrnes riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BUNKER BUSTER ★ Top Rated
J: Philip Byrnes · T: C Byrnes
Form: 23
2.5 ·market 40%
23%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%
2
MICHONNE
J: Donagh Meyler · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 7250 · D
2.2 ·market 44%
18%
44%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
3
IVATT
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 48635
4.0 ·market 25%
13%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -48%
4
CHARLES KICKHAM
J: Paddy Cody(7) · T: Kieran Purcell
Form: 8465
41.0 ·market 2%
9%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +249%
5
ROBBIE DIAMONDS
J: J J Slevin · T: P A Fahy
Form: 06
51.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +261%
6
FEEL LIKE ASH
J: Sean Flanagan · T: Paul Nolan
Form: 0
51.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +259%
7
SAPPHIRE JEWEL
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Colin Motherway
Form: 30
41.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +184%
8
LIATH MOR
J: Kieren Buckley · T: Gavin Cromwell
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
9
QUARRY ROAD
J: Miss Ella Herbison(7) · T: Moses McCabe
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +165%
10
MAGNA GEE GEE
J: Aidan Kelly · T: Patrick J Flynn
Form: 63109
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
 +174%
11
MINERS CABIN
J: Phillip Enright · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
Form: 00790
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
 +137%
12
SPIRIT OF STARS
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Cian Collins
19.0 ·market 5%
2%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -61%
13
PLUS OR MINUS
J: Richard Condon(5) · T: P A Fahy
Form: 85900
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +2%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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