Wolverhampton 13:31: Value Analysis

bet365 Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Friday 2 October 2026

Other Handicap STD 12.0f Class 6 10 runners
Our highest-rated ARLECCHINOS REX Our price 5/2 · Available 11/8 We make it 28% · the market says 42%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates ARLECCHINOS REX top (28% chance)

Preferred to Amalou even giving 3lb, being better suited by the trip and ground, with a strong record against this class, a third 11 days ago and Rose Dawes 23% for Mark Usher. Weight is the enemy.

  • ✓ Preferred to Amalou despite giving 3lb, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Rose Dawes and Mark Usher win 23% together
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ARLECCHINOS REX ★ Top Rated
J: Rose Dawes · T: Mark Usher
Form: 77713 · CD
2.4 ·market 42%
28%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32%
2
AMALOU
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
Form: 98081 · D
3.5 ·market 29%
20%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -29%
3
THIS RIB
J: Ashley Lewis · T: David Loughnane
Form: 05466
9.5 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
4
TEN SIXTY SIX
J: Conor Whiteley(3) · T: David O'Meara
Form: 46524
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
5
FOREVER PERFECT
J: Owen Lewis(3) · T: Rebecca Menzies
Form: 30095 · CD
15.0 ·market 7%
7%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
6
TIGER BEETLE
J: Zoe Lewis(7) · T: Thomas Faulkner
Form: 57835 · C
8.0 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46%
7
PROJECT KINSMAN
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall · T: Philip Kirby
Form: 85350
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +47%
8
SKIRT AROUND
J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: Philip Kirby
Form: 38746
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +13%
9
ECHO THAT
J: Mason Paetel · T: Patrick Owens
Form: 007
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
10
PROPHET SQUEEZE
J: Christian Howarth · T: Barry Murphy
Form: R9756
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +151%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org