Hexham 13:38: Value Analysis
David Clarke Memorial 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Friday 2 October 2026
Preferred to Dark Tide Rising on trip and ground, with a strong record against this class, a win at today's level already and Gavin Sheehan, 13% in the fortnight, teaming with Jamie Snowden at 29%. Fresh after 24 days.
- ✓ Preferred to Dark Tide Rising, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Gavin Sheehan and Jamie Snowden win 29% together
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
RIDE LIKE A GIRL
★ Top Rated
1.8
·market 56%
|
47% |
56% |
1.8
|
-15% | |
| 2 |
DARK TIDE RISING
2.8
·market 36%
|
18% |
36% |
2.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
-51% | |
| 3 |
RHYTHM OF LIFE
10.0
·market 10%
|
13% |
10% |
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+28% | |
| 4 |
EBCHESTER
17.0
·market 6%
|
9% |
6% |
17.0
|
+54% | |
| , |
LECANVEY LADY
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 5 |
WHIN COVER
15.0
·market 7%
|
7% |
7% |
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+12% | |
| 6 |
CREDIT UNION
151.0
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+764%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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