Ascot 13:15: Value Analysis

Betmgm British Ebf October Stakes (Listed Race)

Saturday 3 October 2026

Listed GTF 7.0f Class 1 12 runners

Our highest-rated SO REGAL Our price 9/4 · Available evens We make it 31% · the market says 50%

★ Best value ALBAYDAA Our price 5/1 · Available 11/1 We make it 16% · the market says 8% · +92%

Why the model rates SO REGAL top (31% chance)

Top-rated and better proven at this class than Midnight Tango, she drops in grade with Loughnane 20% in the last two months; the good to firm is the only real query she has to answer.

✓ Preferred to Midnight Tango, better proven at this class
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 20% strike rate in the last two months
✕ The good to firm is a question mark for it
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SO REGAL ★ Top Rated J: Billy Loughnane · T: John & Thady Gosden Form: 31125 · C 2.0 ·market 50%	31%	50%	2.0	-38%
2	ALBAYDAA J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas Form: 21582 · D 12.0 ·market 8%	16%	8%	12.0	+92%
3	SECRET HISTORY J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker Form: 14136 · D 26.0 ·market 4%	9%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+125%
4	DOMINA IGNIS J: Clifford Lee · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy Form: 13007 12.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	12.0	-29%
5	JOSHS JOY J: Jason Watson · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Form: 31755 11.0 ·market 9%	6%	9%	11.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-35%
6	AWAKEN J: Daniel Tudhope · T: George Boughey Form: 94006 19.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	19.0	+8%
7	DASH OF AZURE J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 02209 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-36%
8	MIDNIGHT TANGO J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker Form: 60206 11.0 ·market 9%	5%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-48%
9	BRECKENBROUGH J: Sean Levey · T: Mario Baratti Form: 25 · D 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%
10	JUST A GIRL J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston Form: 42228 · D 29.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+27%
11	AMERICAN GAL J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 79008 13.0 ·market 8%	4%	8%	13.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%
12	MOSTAR DREAMS J: Barry McHugh · T: Adrian Keatley Form: 24399 · D 67.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+173%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org