Newmarket 13:00: Value Analysis

£200,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race)

Saturday 3 October 2026

Unclassified GTF 7.0f Class 2 15 runners

Our highest-rated NIGHT IN VEGAS Our price 4/1 · Available 8/13 We make it 21% · the market says 62%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates NIGHT IN VEGAS top (21% chance)

Winner of four of his last six and well treated on official ratings, he finds a weaker race today; the trip is a query and the yard is out of sorts at 9% in the last two months.

✓ Record at this level stands out
✓ Ran well three runs back
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✕ Eve Johnson Houghton's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NIGHT IN VEGAS ★ Top Rated J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton Form: 15311 · D 1.6 ·market 62%	21%	62%	1.6	-66%
2	ZIGAZIG AH J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer Form: 15272 4.3 ·market 23%	15%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-35%
3	JUMEIRAH STORM J: Neil Callan · T: William Knight Form: 41263 23.0 ·market 4%	13%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+197%
4	CARBINE COUNTRY J: Rossa Ryan · T: William Haggas 26.0 ·market 4%	8%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+119%
5	A BEAR AFFAIR J: Alec Voikhansky · T: Richard Hannon Form: 28541 15.0 ·market 7%	8%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+24%
6	ARTEMIS STAR J: Marco Ghiani · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick Form: 532 81.0 ·market 1%	5%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+319%market disagrees
7	VELOCIRAPTOR J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer Form: 314 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-33%
8	PON PON DALIA J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Marco Botti Form: 521 34.0 ·market 3%	5%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+60%
9	CHOREOGRAPHY J: Colin Keane · T: Michael Bell Form: 1 · D 26.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%
10	WOODHAY WAYFARER J: Nicola Currie · T: Tom Ward Form: 85513 17.0 ·market 6%	4%	6%	17.0	-38%
11	CLARET AND BLUES J: Ray Dawson · T: Richard & Peter Fahey Form: 66534 151.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+367%market disagrees
12	PEGGYS LAD J: Josephine Gordon · T: Iain Jardine Form: 0815 · D 151.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+269%
13	GENEROUS SPIRIT J: Jack Callan · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick 101.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+130%
14	CRAVEN FORCE J: Jack Nicholls · T: Craig Lidster Form: 6705 201.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	201.0	+262%
15	POLGARIA J: Tyler Heard · T: Roger Teal Form: 8840 251.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+331%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org