Newmarket 12:25: Value Analysis
British Ebf Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
Saturday 3 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: HOSEKI is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 36%. It may be beatable.
Four wins from her last five, with a second when she ran 18 days ago, and she has won at this class before — plenty to like, even if she is rated below the best here and steps up in grade.
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 18 days since its last run
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Rated below the best in this race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SUPPLICATE
★ Top Rated
6.0
·market 17%
|
28% |
17% |
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+69% | |
| 2 |
HOSEKI
2.8
·market 36%
|
20% |
36% |
2.8
|
-45% | |
| 3 |
LADY DORA MAE
10.0
·market 10%
|
15% |
10% |
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+45% | |
| 4 |
LIGHT OF PARIS
10.0
·market 10%
|
13% |
10% |
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+32% | |
| 5 |
SEREN STAR
12.0
·market 8%
|
12% |
8% |
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+49% | |
| 6 |
PENDELLA
3.2
·market 31%
|
12% |
31% |
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-62% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org