Uttoxeter 12:51: Value Analysis

F Ball Stick With It Chasing Excellence Beginners' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

Sunday 4 October 2026

Other Chase GD 16.0f Class 3 3 runners
Our highest-rated COUNTRY MILE Our price 4/7 · Available 1/5 We make it 64% · the market says 80%
★ Best value OMOORE PARK Our price 7/2 · Available 13/2 We make it 21% · the market says 13% · +59%
Why the model rates COUNTRY MILE top (64% chance)

Proven over the trip and preferred to Omoore Park, with Dan Skelton's yard striking at 31% in the last six months and Harry Skelton 23% at Uttoxeter; the 345 days off is the one worry.

  • ✓ Preferred to Omoore Park, a proven winner over the trip and a stronger yard at present
  • ✓ Dan Skelton's yard winning 31% of its runners over the last six months
  • ✓ Harry Skelton winning 35% of rides over the last six months
  • ✕ First run for 345 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
COUNTRY MILE ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 23 · D
1.2 ·market 80%
64%
80%
1.2
 -20%
2
OMOORE PARK
J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Martin Keighley
Form: 50679
7.5 ·market 13%
21%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +59%
3
THE GRAY GHOST
J: Charlie Price · T: Robbie Llewellyn
Form: 44144
5.5 ·market 18%
15%
18%
5.5
 -20%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org