Curragh 13:20: Value Analysis

Final Furlong Podcast With 1xBet.ie Irish EBF Fillies Maiden

Sunday 4 October 2026

Maiden YTS 7.0f Class 0 9 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value PIRATE ANNE BONNY Our price 11/8 · Available 6/4 We make it 43% · the market says 40% · +8%
Why the model rates PIRATE ANNE BONNY top (43% chance)

Ticks most boxes here, finishing in the top third of the field over the last five starts, with Twomey's yard winning 19% of its runners in the last six months and the Lee partnership placing 28% from 410 runs.

  • ✓ Average finish in the top third of the field over its last five
  • ✓ W. J. Lee placing 38% of rides over the last six months
  • ✓ P. Twomey's yard winning 19% of its runners over the last six months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PIRATE ANNE BONNY ★ Top Rated
J: W. J. Lee · T: P. Twomey
Form: 2
2.5 ·market 40%
43%
40%
2.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +8%
2
SWEETLY
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
3.8 ·market 27%
18%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33%
3
PETTICOAT BAY
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
11.0 ·market 9%
10%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
4
CHATTERING CLASSES
J: Chris Hayes · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 4
5.5 ·market 18%
9%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -53%
5
LITTLE DARLING
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 5
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
 -51%
6
GOLDEN GIFT
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -1%
7
DARLENE
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +24%
8
BAYSIDE GIRL
J: Robert Whearty · T: Gavin Cromwell
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
 -5%
9
BELLE VISION
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Ms Sheila Lavery
Form: 0
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +7%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org