Uttoxeter 13:26: Value Analysis
Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)
Sunday 4 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GENTLE OCEAN is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 8% vs the market's 42%. It may be beatable.
Won two of the last four, tops the official ratings and eases in grade after facing much stronger company 12 days ago; the Scott-Candlish pairing wins 29% from 53 runs.
- ✓ Preferred to Time In A Bottle, more consistent recent form and more wins in its last five
- ✓ Won 2 of its last 4
- ✓ Highest official rating in the race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
IN THE TRENCHES
★ Top Rated
4.5
·market 22%
|
39% |
22% |
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+77% | |
| 2 |
TIME IN A BOTTLE
7.0
·market 14%
|
27% |
14% |
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+92% | |
| 3 |
A CHARA
4.0
·market 25%
|
9% |
25% |
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-66% | |
| 4 |
CAPTAIN CONNOR
67.0
·market 1%
|
8% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+445%market disagrees | |
| 5 |
GENTLE OCEAN
2.4
·market 42%
|
8% |
42% |
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-81% | |
| 6 |
LETMESEETHECOLTS
10.0
·market 10%
|
6% |
10% |
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-44% | |
| 7 |
STAVANGER ROSE
67.0
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
67.0
|
+87% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org