Killarney 13:00: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

Monday 5 October 2026

Maiden YTS 8.0f Class 0 12 runners
Our highest-rated HEART OF YOU Our price 4/1 · Available 11/4 We make it 21% · the market says 27%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates HEART OF YOU top (21% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Lake Lugano, a better speed figure and more consistent recent form
  • ✓ W. J. Lee placing 38% of rides over the last six months
  • ✓ Best speed figure in the race, 77

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HEART OF YOU ★ Top Rated
J: W. J. Lee · T: K J Condon
Form: 56
3.8 ·market 27%
21%
27%
3.8
 -22%
2
LAKE LUGANO
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 05
8.0 ·market 12%
12%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
3
EPIC ARCH
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
Form: 68
34.0 ·market 3%
10%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +244%
4
WECOULDAVEHADITALL
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
Form: 9073
4.0 ·market 25%
9%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -62%
5
ESTADO DE LA LUNA
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Form: 07
21.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +70%
6
DARIVAN
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 65
4.0 ·market 25%
8%
25%
4.0
 -68%
,
MISS CORNELIA NR
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Joseph G Murphy
Form: 670
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
7
MAGMA LAW
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy
Form: 83
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -27%
8
COASTAL WONDER
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: John S O'Donoghue
Form: 98
9.0 ·market 11%
7%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%
9
POWER THROUGH
J: Chris Hayes · T: A Oliver
Form: 08
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
10
FORTHETHRILLOFIT
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Form: 00
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +278%
11
SILK TWIST
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Thomas Mullins
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +79%
12
MAGNA FORTUNA
J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: P F McEnery
Form: 000
176.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
176.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +504%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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