Yarmouth 13:15: Value Analysis

White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Monday 5 October 2026

Other Handicap GTF 6.0f Class 6 9 runners
Our highest-rated KOFFEE AND KALE Our price 11/2 · Available 5/1 We make it 15% · the market says 17%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates KOFFEE AND KALE top (15% chance)
  • ✓ Joe Bradnam(7) and Michael Bell place 38% together from 54 runs
  • ✓ Michael Bell's yard placing 33% of its runners over the last six months
  • ✓ Michael Bell places 39% of runners at Yarmouth from 132 runs
  • ✕ Speed figures some way behind the best here
  • ✕ Yet to win over 6f in 8 tries

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KOFFEE AND KALE ★ Top Rated
J: Joe Bradnam(7) · T: Michael Bell
Form: 46427
6.0 ·market 17%
15%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
2
ARNAZ
J: Hope Regan(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
Form: 81165 · D
4.5 ·market 22%
15%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -34%
3
HONKY TONK GIRL
J: Jack Dace · T: Oliver Cole
Form: 43146 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +54%
4
ICONIC DAWN
J: Toby Moore(5) · T: Hughie Morrison
Form: 74413 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
5
EIGHTTHREEONE
J: Oliver Carmichael(5) · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 65443 · D
4.0 ·market 25%
11%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
6
SHES DIVINE
J: Jack Callan · T: Mark Loughnane
Form: 22259
23.0 ·market 4%
11%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +156%
7
ALEPPO PEPPER
J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: John Ryan
Form: 35
23.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +93%
8
DANGER ALERT
J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: Adam Kirby
Form: 49668 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -14%
9
TWO AND TWO
J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: Simon Hodgson
Form: 50405 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
7%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org