Pontefract 13:30: Value Analysis

British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Monday 5 October 2026

Novice Stakes GD 8.0f Class 3 5 runners
Our highest-rated NARRJOO Our price 8/13 · Available 1/2 We make it 63% · the market says 65%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates NARRJOO top (63% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Beloved Country, a better speed figure and more consistent recent form
  • ✓ Average finish in the top third of the field over its last five
  • ✓ Simon & Ed Crisford's yard placing 40% of its runners over the last six months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NARRJOO ★ Top Rated
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
D
1.5 ·market 65%
63%
65%
1.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
2
BELOVED COUNTRY
J: Jason Hart · T: Ed Dunlop
Form: 77
7.0 ·market 14%
11%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
3
CANVAS POWER
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
41.0 ·market 2%
10%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +299%
4
TOO DARN REGAL
J: George Wood · T: Harry Eustace
Form: 8
3.8 ·market 27%
9%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66%
5
MAGWITCH
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 09
23.0 ·market 4%
7%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +68%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org