Galway 13:45: Value Analysis

Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle

Tuesday 6 October 2026

Maiden YLD 16.5f Class 0 20 runners
Our highest-rated YOUNG REBEL Our price 4/1 · Available 1/2 We make it 20% · the market says 65%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates YOUNG REBEL top (20% chance)

Solid claims across the board: competitive against this class, in good heart over his last three runs and used to better company. The 66-day break and a 0% jockey-trainer record are the quibbles.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Mark Walsh and Emmet Mullins have a poor record together, 0% winners
  • ✕ First run for 66 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
YOUNG REBEL ★ Top Rated
J: Mark Walsh · T: Emmet Mullins
Form: 15 · D
1.5 ·market 65%
20%
65%
1.5
 -70%
2
DIRECT APPROACH
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 35932
5.0 ·market 20%
14%
20%
5.0
 -29%
3
CARRIG PADRAIG
J: Ben Harvey · T: Gavin Cromwell
Form: 510F0 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
11%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +88%
4
ALBERTA ROSE
J: Sam Ewing · T: Daniel G Murphy
Form: 75
41.0 ·market 2%
10%
2%
41.0
 +293%
5
BAILA CONMIGO
J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: Ciaran Murphy
Form: 36444
4.3 ·market 23%
8%
23%
4.3
 -65%
6
BLUES STREET
J: Kieren Buckley · T: Gavin Cromwell
Form: 7
51.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +233%
7
LIL SOLDIER
J: Sean Flanagan · T: E McNamara
Form: 7
51.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
51.0
 +184%
8
HOMETOMAYO
J: Alan King(7) · T: M Flannery
Form: P070
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
 +436%market disagrees
9
N KELLEHER
J: Cian Quirke · T: Michael J McDonagh
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +83%
10
PASSIVE IDAHO
J: Phillip Enright · T: Norman Lee
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
 +103%
11
GALWAY STAR
J: Daniel King · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy
Form: 0
126.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
126.0
 +199%
12
MISTER CLASS
J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell
10.0 ·market 10%
2%
10%
10.0
 -77%
13
MYSTIC BRIDGE
J: Philip Donovan · T: V T O'Brien
Form: 8
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +224%
14
SURESURESURE
J: J J Slevin · T: John F O'Neill
Form: P0750
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +99%
15
MUCHLUAIN
J: Brian Barry(7) · T: M Flannery
126.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
126.0
 +94%
16
KIDAM ROQUE
J: Niall Moore(5) · T: I Madden
Form: 870PU
126.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
126.0
 +85%
17
THE YELLOW CAPRI
J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: Eugene M O'Sullivan
34.0 ·market 3%
1%
3%
34.0
 -52%
18
BORN DE CERES
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Paul John Gilligan
Form: 67
126.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
126.0
 +53%
19
STORM BRESIE
J: Mr R Sugrue(7) · T: P J Rothwell
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
 -51%
20
LEVA EAGLE
J: Mr E M Nugent(7) · T: Norman Lee
Form: 0
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +76%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org