Ayr 13:45: Value Analysis

Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Thursday 8 October 2026

Other Handicap HVY 10.0f Class 5 12 runners

Our highest-rated MOTAWAARED Our price 10/3 · Available 11/4 We make it 24% · the market says 27%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates MOTAWAARED top (24% chance)

Strongest claims: runner-up in four of the last six, including nine days ago, eases in grade from a 68-rated field and has the trip and heavy ground covered, though Jim Goldie's yard is quiet at 6% in the fortnight.

✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✕ Jim Goldie's yard quiet lately, 6% in the fortnight
✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MOTAWAARED ★ Top Rated J: Lauren Young(3) · T: Jim Goldie Form: 22252 3.8 ·market 27%	24%	27%	3.8	-12%
2	GHOST STORY J: Mason Paetel · T: John Butler Form: 34344 · D 5.5 ·market 18%	13%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-30%
3	WEST TYRONE J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Lizzie Quinlan Form: 80317 · CD 13.0 ·market 8%	11%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+40%
4	NATURALIA J: Shay Farmer(3) · T: Donald Whillans Form: 44184 · CD 10.0 ·market 10%	9%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%
5	FALCON NINE J: Jack Nicholls · T: Iain Jardine Form: 80322 5.5 ·market 18%	8%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-57%
6	IDYLLIC J: Alex Jary · T: Wilf Storey Form: 40364 · D 15.0 ·market 7%	7%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+8%
7	ROYAL BLAZE J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans Form: 39110 · CD 19.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+14%
8	SWEET KISS J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Tim Easterby Form: 62254 · D 10.0 ·market 10%	6%	10%	10.0	-44%
9	SPANISH HUSTLE J: Amie Waugh · T: Jim Goldie Form: 65527 · D 19.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+4%
10	VEGA STORM J: Warren Fentiman · T: Richard & Peter Fahey Form: 04634 10.0 ·market 10%	4%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-57%
11	SOPHIESTICATE J: Kyle McHugh(5) · T: R. Mike Smith Form: 31689 · CD 67.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+182%
12	TAP DANCER J: Rhys Elliott · T: Jim Goldie Form: 37675 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	3%	8%	13.0	-60%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org